The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration measured at the Mauna Loa observatory averaged 410.31 ppm for the month of April, 2018, marking the first monthly average above 410 ppm for over 800,000 years. The atmospheric CO2 concentration has now increased 30% since CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa started in 1958, and over 40% since before the Industrial Revolution.
The build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to the burning of fossil fuels traps ever greater amounts of heat from the sun, driving global climate change.
“We keep burning fossil fuels. Carbon dioxide keeps building up in the air. It’s essentially as simple as that.”
-Ralph Keeling, geochemist and Director of the Scripps CO2 Program
Today on Earth Day, Eliot Hester, a new age instrumentalist, has released his new The Beauty Lost album. Eliot conceived The Beauty Lost to bring attention and contemplation to beauty in the process or in danger of being lost from our Earth due to climate change. Each original composition incorporates, interwoven with contemplative melodies produced by a unique blend of instrumentation (cello, bassoon, clarinet, guitar, keyboards) natural sounds of an environment in peril.
Celebrate and contemplate this Earth Day by listening to Eliot’s album!You can get it on iTunes, or wherever you go for your digital music. You can feel great about your purchase this Earth Day, as Eliot is donating 20% of the proceeds from sales related to The Beauty Lost to 350.org, a non-profit organization that supports and promotes scientific research and political action to stop anthropogenic climate change. See Eliot’s website for more information.
From time to time, I’ll post on this blog a science article related to each of the beauties and losses Eliot so harmoniously captures. Watch this space.
With his haunting and meditative music, Eliot reminds us that climate change is not simply a matter of dry science, political debate, economic calculation, and technology deployment. It is all those things, of course. But it’s also a deeply emotional and profoundly moral issue, one that fundamentally challenges our love for one another, our nurturing of children born and unborn, and our stewardship of our Earth, the provider of all the beauty that cradles us.
It’s something that will require all our brains to fix, but we feel it viscerally, in our hearts and in our guts.
Like a lot of us, Amy and I filed our taxes today, a day before the due date. (Whew!) We owed this year. It’s all good; I don’t actually mind paying my fair share of taxes for the good services our government provides. Our kids attend a great school staffed with fantastic teachers. We had to call 911 once for our daughter when she was a little baby (she’s fine), and our town’s publicly funded ambulance was right there. I’ve had the opportunity of doing some work inside the wastewater treatment plant for a major metropolitan area; if you haven’t seen inside one of those, you’d be amazed at the operation your taxes pay for, you know, to take care of our business. Most summers we drive across the country on great highways. Our freedom is protected by the best military the world has ever known, and under civilian leadership.
All this stuff is expensive.
My taxes next year, I presume, will help pay for an enhanced wall on our Southern border. I wouldn’t personally elect to pay for that. I tend to believe professional border guards whom I have heard say there are more efficient ways to buy border security improvements. I also don’t think it’s all that high on our priority list of problems — the already dwindling number of illegal immigrants crossing the border with our peaceful trading partner to the South.
But I still don’t very much mind paying for that wall. I understand it’s important to lots of other Americans and they voted, fair and square, for our current President partly based on that promise. Sometimes in a democracy we end up buying what other people want more than we do.
I’ll tell you what I do not wish to buy with my taxes.
I do not wish to pay for my government to employ Maria Caffrey, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado, to spend the greater part of 6 years researching and writing an 86-page report about projected climate change impacts on coastal parks of the National Park Service, only to sit on the final draft for over a year after it was submitted right before the 2016 presidential election.
“It would create flooding across a massive area.” -Climate scientist Maria Caffrey commenting on the projected effect on the National Mall of a category 3 hurricane on top of rising sea levels that might occur due to anthropogenic climate change, according to her analysis
“Anthropogenic” and “human activities” have been removed, suggesting climate change is just a fact of life, not the direct result of human choices (in direct contradiction of the overwhelming scientific consensus based on a wealth of well studied evidence). Perhaps most insidiously, the phrase, “will have a significant impact on how we protect and manage our public lands” has been edited to read, “will impact how we manage our public lands.” Whoa, that’s way different! The scientist wrote that the impacts would be significant! And that we might need to protect and manage our public lands. As in, we might have choices to do more protecting and less managing! But after some well-placed bureaucratic strike-outs, presto, it’s just some impacts we’ll need to manage. Nothing significant. No worries.
“I want an investigation into how that document got around to the press before we even had a chance to look at it.” -Ryan Zinke, U.S. Secretary of the Interior and an old friend of the fossil fuel industry, responding to questions from lawmakers about the report his employees appear to have had a chance to look at, based on the edits above
“I was legally required to release these records.” -Maria Caffrey, potentially ending Zinke’s investigation by explaining that she works for a public university, which is required to supply the press, or anyone, with its records on request. Your taxes at work – yeah!
This is what I do not wish to pay for. Why should any of us want to? Why pay a scientist to study something for 6 years, then bury and seek to alter the resulting report? Why indeed, when the conclusions look pretty darn important? My family and I walked across the National Mall over Spring break. It’s beautiful, many people have worked hard to build it, and in its monuments are a record of our most important memories and greatest hardships, sacrifices, and triumphs as a nation. If the scientists we’ve already paid have concluded in the future it might be destroyed, and that’s preventable, well then we should know it! My money bought that answer!
I do not wish to pay for cover-ups, lies, and half-truths.
I do not wish to pay for my government to corruptly and falsely play favorites with the fossil fuel industry; I already pay them at the pump.
“Potentially it’s hopeful. We could choose to try and go down that lower emissions path and be able to divert ourselves away from much higher sea levels.” -Maria Caffrey, climate scientist
That’s a message of hope, but only if we’re in possession of the truth we paid for.
“We’re going to defend first and foremost existing federal greenhouse gas standards. We’re defending them because they’re good for the entire nation. No one should think it’s easy to undo something that’s been not just good for the country, but good for the planet.”
-Xavier Becerra, Attorney General of California, indicating to The New York Times his state’s determination to defend its right to maintain the current federal auto emission targets within its borders, in the face of the EPA’s impending plans to roll back those emission standards
According to reporting by The New York Times, my buddy Scott Pruitt’s EPA is planning to announce in the next few days its plans to significantly roll back the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards adopted in 2012 under an agreement, at the time, with Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo, as well as the United Auto Workers (UAW). The regulations adopted at that time in agreement with these automakers — which account for over 90% of vehicle sales in the U.S. — require automakers to nearly double the average fuel economy of new cars and trucks to 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025.
It is also a goal that is achievable. This EPA website (live link, saved image in case it gets deleted) summarizes technologies available now or nearly developed that could meet this goal. It’s not as if all new cars would need to be Tesla’s by 2025. The enabling technologies include (for a standard gasoline engine car):
Variable valve timing and lift, cylinder deactivation, and turbocharging;
Electric power steering;
Turning off the engine when the car is stopped;
Fuel-efficient tires and aerodynamics;
Weight reduction materials;
8-speed transmissions.
As an engineer, I assess that the implementation of these technologies by 2025 would be butter. The fully electrified, fully hybrid cars we normally identify with environmental friendliness would be icing on the cake.
The EPA assesses (right now) that the above technologies could increase average fleet fuel economy from around 35 mpg now to around 53 mpg in 2025, reducing oil consumption by about 12 billion barrels and reducing CO2 pollution by about six billion tons over the lifetime of all the cars affected by the regulations, while the average vehicle cost would rise from about $25,000 to about $27,000 (an increase of less than 10%).
Right now, only Canada and the U.S. have committed themselves to such aggressive fuel efficiency standards by 2025. Presumably, since the goals appear achievable, this would be a great way for Canada and the U.S. to place themselves in a technological leadership position in a world in which all nations except three have committed themselves to the Paris climate agreement.
In March, 2017, at a Detroit auto research facility, President Trump said, “I’m sure you’ve all heard the big news that we’re going to work on the CAFE standards so you can make cars in America again.” What is he talking about? We are the people who put astronauts on the moon! As a professional engineer, I guarantee you engineers at Ford, GM, Chrysler, BMW, Honda, Hyundai, Jaguar/Land Rover, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Toyota, and Volvo are not shrinking from the challenge of implementing valve timing and lift, cylinder deactivation, turbocharging, electric power steering, turning off the engine when the car is stopped, and 8-speed transmissions by 2025.
Today’s future requires vehicles that enable our rapid movement without destroying our atmosphere. Perhaps our federal legislature should offer a financial award for the first to produce a practical substitute for gas guzzling, CO2 spouting, global warming, inefficient internal combustion engines. Oh, except wait, we already have them!
California argues it should be able to maintain the current standards. It has a special waiver under the 1970 Clean Air Act empowering it to enforce stronger air pollution standards than those set by the federal government. And it means to exercise that waiver in all of our interest. 12 other states including New York, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania have historically followed its lead, making up together more than one-third of the U.S. auto market.
Federalism may save us from the worst, as these 13 states could force automakers to choose between dividing their product offerings between two separate markets or simply doing the right thing. To my friends and family in California, Massachusetts, New York, and Pennsylvania, THANK YOU for your leadership!
I submit it would be the height of hypocrisy for the GOP, the party of small government and states’ rights, to argue that California should not be allowed to define tighter emission standards within its own borders.
Eliot Hester, a new age instrumentalist, has conceived The Beauty Lost Project, his effort to bring attention and contemplation to beauty in danger of being lost from the world, irreversibly, due to climate change. Each original composition incorporates, interwoven with contemplative melodies produced by a unique blend of instrumentation (cello, bassoon, clarinet, guitar, keyboards) natural sounds of an environment in peril.
In advance of the upcoming release of his The Beauty Lost album, Eliot and The 5th Records are releasing TODAY a single from the album, “Tranquility (The Amazon).” Look for it on iTunes or wherever you go for digital music. Eliot is donating 20% of the proceeds from sales related to The Beauty Lost Project to scientific research and political action to stop climate change. The Beauty Lost album will be released on Earth Day, April 22, 2018. See Eliot’s blog for more information.
Eliot is right to bring attention to the Amazon rainforest. A 2013 study by an international research team led by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory analyzed detailed satellite data collected over the Amazon between 2000 and 2009. This study linked rainfall data with spacecraft measurements of the moisture content and structural changes in the rainforest’s canopy, finding that the Amazon suffered a severe drought around 2005. The 2005 drought was directly attributed to long-term warming of the tropical Atlantic sea surface.
“In effect, the same climate phenomenon that helped form hurricanes Katrina and Rita along U.S. southern coasts in 2005 also likely caused the severe drought in southwest Amazonia.” -Sassan Saatchi, researcher at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and lead author of the 2013 study
Before the Amazon could recover from the 2005 drought, the rainforest suffered a second megadrought around 2010. A 2009 study of the drought effects concluded that repeated cyclical droughts could be expected to destroy 20-40% of the Amazon, converting it irreversibly to savanna within 100 years, if global warming could be limited to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the current goal of the Paris Climate Agreement). If global temperatures increased as much as 4 degrees Celsius, the authors projected up to an 85% loss of the Amazon.
This is also a classic example of a positive feedback (“positive” meaning “negative” for humanity). Loss of the Amazon would turn one of the Earth’s greatest carbon sinks into a carbon contributor as dead trees rot.
“Ecologically it would be a catastrophe and it would be taking a huge chance with our own climate. The tropics are drivers of the world’s weather systems and killing the Amazon is likely to change them forever. We don’t know exactly what would happen but we could expect more extreme weather.” -Peter Cox, professor of climate system dynamics at the University of Exeter and co-author of the 2009 study
A new study published last month documents the most recent Amazon megadrought in 2015, which was worse than the previous two and affected an area of the rainforest doubled in size compared with the 2005 event.
There is still time to prevent the worst of it, but time is running out.
This “news story” is a work of satire. All linked quotes, however, are 100% real.
14 February 2018
AP – Hours after a troubled teen packing an AR-15 military style firearm killed at least 17 adults and schoolchildren in a Parkland, Florida high school, a handful of months after a gunman killed at least 26 church-goers in Sutherland Springs, Texas, and in the wake of a string of national tragedies over earlier weeks including the depraved massacre of 58 people by a “lone wolf” gunman in Las Vegas only 35 days before that and the Puerto Rican landfall of Hurricane Maria around the same time, Americans widely acknowledged on Wednesday they had entered a new Great American Mourning Episode (GAME) observed by tradition following any such travesty on U.S. soil. Variously held for a period of weeks or months, the GAME features, by mutual agreement of all patriotic American citizens and in respectful observance of the suffering of the victims of the tragedy, a usually unspoken moratorium on any insensitive public discourse related to possible root causes of the disaster or potential methods of preventing similar travesties in the future.
These exemplary demonstrations of patriotism epitomized the vital principle of the GAME, that any misguided efforts to identify and discuss the merits of potential policy adjustments to prevent future calamities would only serve as distractions from the proper acknowledgement and consideration of the suffering of fellow Americans.
Indeed, the GAME demands, for all who love America, that terrestrial considerations of practical human action should rather be transcended by prayer, in the form of devout appeals to any of various higher deities to ease the suffering of the afflicted and grant relief from such tragedies in the future. Americans widely admit no documented evidence of any of the major deities obviously meddling significantly in natural events or the collective fortunes of large groups of people for thousands of years. Even in those ancient times, literary evidence suggests interference of deities only in the context of vigorous efforts on the part of a human population to improve its own fortunes. Nevertheless, the documented power wielded by the deities in those times was unquestionably awesome, so the Strategy of Prayer is widely considered a “Hail Mary play” that might eliminate future human tragedies without resorting to the sorts of terrestrial human actions forbidden by proper observation of the GAME.
External observers have questioned the wisdom of the GAME, saying it might delay sorely needed actions that could prevent future horrific events. Foreign analysts have often referenced the apparent incongruity of the GAME with pragmatic American reactions to other types of problems. Aidan O’Sullivan of Limerick, Ireland pointed out, “If’n a baseball cums crashin’ through yisser picture windy, Oi’m juicy sure yer open de door roi away ter see wha’ wee kid did it, even as you’re also mournin’ de loss of yisser windy.” While true, Aidan’s example misses the point of the GAME, which has to do with the sheer size and depth of tragedy that can result only from a category 5 Atlantic hurricane or a crazy loner wielding an AR-15 legally enhanced with an ARMATAC SAW-MAG 150 round dual drum magazine, a Slide Fire bump stock, a Black Rain silencer, and a Vortex Optics Crossfire II Riflescope purchased on Amazon Prime with free overnight shipping.
Immediate, pragmatic action is entirely appropriate for day-to-day setbacks like busted picture windows. A hurricane landfall on a major city or a gunman in an elevated firing position menacing a dense crowd of T-shirt and sandal clad concert-goers with 20 or more military grade firearms, however, is uniquely capable of generating a scale of mayhem – scores of dead and hundreds or thousands of human lives forever altered – that can only be properly observed by strict adherence to the GAME.
In private moments, several citizens quietly confessed some trepidation about the limits the GAME might place on Americans’ ability to engage in the collective discourse necessary to develop robust solutions to some of the nation’s most pressing problems. “It had been a full month since the Las Vegas shooting, and I‘d just gotten back to starting to think about whether some type of common-sense gun legislation might help reduce the body count when some nut becomes unhinged and decides to kill a bunch of innocent people in a school or at a concert,” explained Larry Swingvoater of Green Bay, Wisconsin. “Now, another maniac decided to open fire in a church, so of course I can’t think about policy while those poor people are suffering. But what I worry about is, if these hurricanes and mass shootings keep happening so close together, when WILL I think about that stuff? Anyway, I’m back to praying now – maybe that will eventually pay off.”
Others wondered aloud what the solutions from a supernatural deity might look like, should the Strategy of Prayer prove successful. Would future tragedies from climate change ultimately be averted by solutions resembling the “solar technology,” “wind technology,” or “battery technology” rumored to have been developed by human scientists and engineers? Or, might a deity prove capable of providing sustainable bioenergy derived from multitudes of burning bushes? Or, tidal energy afforded by repetitive parting of the earth’s seas? Might an entity akin to the Holy Spirit provide a bullet-proof energy field around the nation’s innocent civilians, enabling Americans to maintain casual public availability of thrilling, adrenaline-pumping battlefield style firearms without risk to young schoolchildren?
A handful of fringe citizens, who made their controversial remarks on condition of anonymity so as not to be identified as GAME-violators, expressed the cynical opinion that the GAME poorly serves American politics and is actually the result of a “cruel and selfish conspiracy” by a few well-funded special interests with outsized influence on U.S. legislative policy. “This is not patriotism, but simply a transparent political delay tactic,” claimed Jon Faiknaim, whose name has been changed in this article at his request. “Every time a hurricane or a gun-toting madman kills a bunch of people, politicians in the pockets of the fossil fuel industry and the National Rifle Association call it ‘insensitive’ to talk about policy changes that would solve some of our most urgent public problems but harm the narrow interests of those minority stakeholders. Then, everybody forgets about the problem the moment another issue of critical national interest demands consideration. Like the linguistic etymology of the word, ‘covfefe,’ or how football players arrange their limbs during pre-game performances of the National Anthem. Then, the next time one of these tragedies occurs, the irrational cycle repeats itself.” Fortunately, these cynical expressions of doubt were rare.
But our national leader’s statements were most inspirational as he bravely defended the sanctity of the GAME when questioned by an unruly member of the press pool about whether “we have a gun violence problem.”
Scott Pruitt is the current administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), a federal agency that was proposed by Republican President Nixon and established in 1970. Its mission then was the same as its stated mission now. That mission is written succinctly on its website: “Our mission is to protect human health and the environment.” So far, so good.
The EPA website further elaborates on various elements of accomplishing that mission, second among them being to ensure that, “National efforts to reduce environmental risks are based on the best available scientific information.” It’s here I think we have a problem with Scott.
Prior to his appointment to the office on Feb 17, 2017, Scott Pruitt had sued the EPA 14 times as Attorney General of Oklahoma, and declared himself a “leading advocate against the EPA’s activist agenda.” Based on my own experience interviewing prospective new hires, a professed and demonstrated opposition to the mission of the job in question would be a practically disqualifying consideration. But I just work for a technology company that routinely develops and commercializes new and useful products based on science, not a government that successfully declines to take much substantive action despite decades of accumulating scientific knowledge. So what would I know about hiring in government?
The problem is, despite almost exactly a year in his position, at the head of an organization replete with expert climate scientists and with complete access to any manner of scientific evidence, Scott’s actions and statements have demonstrated a remarkable immunity to even the most basic scientific knowledge.
The latest case in point — his remarks this past Tuesday, explaining how, in direct contradiction of all scientific evidence, climate change (which Scott conceded humans have caused “to a certain degree”) might just be good for us!
“Is it an existential threat? Is it something that is unsustainable, or what kind of effect or harm is this going to have? I mean, we know that humans have most flourished during times of what? Warming trends . . . I think there’s assumptions made that because the climate is warming, that that necessarily is a bad thing. Do we really know what the ideal surface temperature should be in the year 2100? In the year 2018? I mean it’s fairly arrogant for us to think that we know exactly what it should be in 2100.” -Scott Pruitt in an interview with KSNV TV in Las Vegas, Feb 6, 2018
This is a type of climate denial argument that seems to be growing in popularity recently, as increasing scientific evidence, a virtually unanimous and well-publicized scientific consensus, and easily observable natural events force even staunch deniers to admit the Earth appears to be warming. It just shifts the willful ignorance one logical step further: “OK, maybe the Earth is warming a bit, and maybe humans are responsible at least a little bit, but how do we know that’s bad? Maybe it’s good!”
Scott said it Tuesday, but other deniers are also employing this argument:
In the East, it could be the COLDEST New Year’s Eve on record. Perhaps we could use a little bit of that good old Global Warming that our Country, but not other countries, was going to pay TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS to protect against. Bundle up!
It’s an argument that thrives when the public is not well educated about the climate. It’s also a seductive argument, particularly in winter. You’re thinking, “Yeah, all this snow is a pain in the butt; maybe we could do with a little less of it!”
Let’s be super clear. Based on the evidence, there is absolutely no reason to expect that global climate change is likely to be a good thing for humanity. To fight this argument, we need to be armed with some basic scientific evidence. Fortunately, the evidence is publicly available and pretty simple to understand.
First, yes, we know the Earth has been warming since the Industrial Revolutions in the middle of the 1800’s, and this has been the result primarily of rising atmospheric CO2, which also started at that time. 2015, 2016, and 2017 were the three hottest years in recorded human history.
“Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have increased since the pre-industrial era, driven largely by economic and population growth, and are now higher than ever. This has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years. Their effects, together with those of other anthropogenic drivers, have been detected throughout the climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
Translation: Practically speaking, you can bet essentially all of the warming has occurred because we’ve been burning fossil fuels.
This consensus is derived from a detailed accounting of the amount of CO2 that has been produced from fossil fuels and where it has gone. Based on this accounting, we now know that about exactly 57% of the CO2 we release stays in the atmosphere, the remaining 43% being absorbed by the oceans (which are acidified as a result) and soil.
“I mean, we know that humans have most flourished during times of what? Warming trends . . .” -Scott Pruitt, speaking like an ignoramus
I don’t know what he means by that last part about “warming trends.” In terms of the global average temperature, the last 3 years have been the warmest years since measurements began in 1850-1880, so that “warming trend” would be now. Are we “flourishing?” Personally, I’m doing fine, though I’m not sure I would chalk it up to global warming. It’s hard to argue that folks currently on the front lines of global climate change effects — in Shishmaref, Kiribati, or Fiji, for example — are “flourishing.” And things aren’t exactly looking up for coastal real estate owners in Miami, either.
But we can, with scientific certainty, say something about under what conditions humans have historically flourished. Specifically, humans since Biblical times have been flourishing (until very recently) with a CO2 concentration between the black lines:
The species Homo sapiens has been flourishing, since around 200,000 years ago, with an atmospheric CO2 concentration ranging from 184 to 287 ppm.
Ultimately, how we regulate our body temperature. The 2012 Global Energy Assessmentestimated that there remain 15,000 gigatons of fossil carbon in the Earth’s crust. According to a 2011 peer reviewed analysis by four current and former scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the burning of 10,000 gigatons of carbon on a “business as usual” trajectory would result in a global average temperature increase of 29 degrees Fahrenheit. This would result in an estimated most common wet bulb temperature over the Earth’s surface of 109 degrees Fahrenheit. Above a sustained wet bulb temperature of 95 degrees Fahrenheit, the human body cannot maintain its body temperature of 98.6 degrees.
Partaking in Scott Pruitt’s blissful ignorance could, literally, cook us.
“Do we really know what the ideal surface temperature should be in the year 2100? In the year 2018? I mean it’s fairly arrogant for us to think that we know exactly what it should be in 2100.” -Scott Pruitt, worrying aloud over the arrogant hubris of human observation and reason
Is it “arrogant” to employ systematic observation and reason to plan for the future? Perhaps, but I’d say we’re guilty as charged! Observation, reason, and planning are humans’ differentiating features. 200,000 years ago, they enabled us to survive in a world populated by natural hazards and fearsome predators. Later, they empowered us to practice agriculture, develop technologies, and build civilizations. We’ve accomplished everything, as a species, in the comfortable and stable environment created by a rather narrow range of atmospheric CO2 levels. Where the CO2 level is currently headed, all bets are off. Why would we abandon observation, reason, and planning now, especially when those strengths have also enabled us to develop sustainable energy solutions to the problem?
Because Scott Pruitt has a hunch that climate change, just maybe, could be good for us?
My very first blog post on this website, almost exactly a year ago, was about the then-recently released data from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that independently confirmed 2016 had become the third consecutive year to set the record for warmest global temperature. My 2017 New Year’s resolution had been to learn more about global warming, whether the science was settled or not, and how (in some detail) we know, and to post my learning journey on this site. Over the course of the past year, I’ve learned a lot. I’ve learned the science is very settled, and I’ve learned exactly how long we’ve known global warming is real; as it turns out, we’ve had reliable measurements since 1958 that confirm suspicions and preliminary data scientists had since the late 1800’s (read a brief history, with links to the original research, here). I’ve learned about a multitude of easily observable effects of climate change that are happening right Before Our Eyes (check them out here). I’ve learned that we have readily available technological solutions, but we are not using them with anything like the urgency we need to if we want to prevent terrible future consequences.
A year later, the data from 2017 is in, and it was either the 2nd (according to NASA’s analysis) or 3rd (according to NOAA’s analysis) warmest year on record. Check out the press release for more details, and watch the NASA video below.
This is despite the onset of La Niña, a cyclical cooling of sea surface temperature across the equatorial Eastern Central Pacific Ocean, during the latter part of 2017, which tended to make the atmospheric temperature during that time cooler than average. El Niño, the warmer part of that Pacific cycle, was in effect for most of 2015 and the first third of 2016.
Why the difference in rankings between NASA (2nd warmest year on record) and NOAA (3rd warmest year on record)? As I explained in some detail on another page, NASA and NOAA are among four scientific groups (the other two being a British group and a Japanese group) that independently track global average temperature trends. While NASA, NOAA, and the other groups’ analyses have agreed remarkably well over the entire period between 1880 and now, they each use slightly different data sets and analytical methods. Specifically, NASA’s methods weight measurements in the arctic slightly more heavily than NOAA’s methods, and the arctic atmosphere has been warming more quickly than the global atmosphere as a whole.
In any case, all analyses agree that the past 3 years — 2015, 2016, and 2017 — were the hottest 3 years at least since 1880, when global temperature measurement became possible.
I guess we’d better keep learning about this, huh?
Last week, I posted scientific findings regarding increased “sunny day” tidal flooding in U.S. coastal cities and its linkage to global sea level rise due to melting ice in Greenland and Antarctica. I went on to argue that the frequent assertion by our president and others, that increased investment in the fossil fuel industry creates jobs and has other economic benefits, ignores the devastating and surely greater economic costs that will occur if we continue to ignore climate change. Among those costs is the massive quantity of high-priced U.S. coastal real estate that will ultimately be immersed in the ocean if we continue with “business as usual.”
As it turns out, though much of our government is in denial about the economic realities of climate change, that denial is vanishing in the Florida real estate market. Both social scientists and real estate business insiders can measure the effect of this growing realization on coastal real estate prices in South Florida, a test case for highly valued coastal properties that ring the nation:
“At some point, we won’t be able to sell.” -Ross Hancock, homeowner in Biscayne Bay, FL, who faces a potential $60,000 repair bill for Irma damages to his condo not covered by insurance, and who has been trying for 2 months to sell it without success
“systemic fraudulent nondisclosure [of flood risk by real estate agents] … is pretty much what we have now.” -Albert Slap, owner of Coastal Risk Consulting, a South Florida flood risk assessment company (The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill in 2017 that would require agents to disclose flood risks, but the Senate has not taken it up.)
“They’re not going to live here while we spend two years raising the streets.”
-Dan Kipnis, Miami Beach homeowner who has been trying unsuccessfully to sell his house for 18 months despite dropping the price by a more than one-third from $3.2 million, worrying that sea-level related projects and the associated property taxes are scaring prospective buyers away
“Homes exposed to sea level rise (SLR) sell at a 7% discount relative to observably equivalent unexposed properties equidistant from the beach. This discount has grown over time and is driven by sophisticated buyers and communities worried about global warming.” -Asaf Bernstein, Matthew Gustafson & Ryan Lewis, authors of the cited social science working paper, summarizing their conclusions from a recent detailed study of the relationship between SLR exposure and U.S. coastal real estate prices
I highly recommend this short article, published this week, by Mark Kelly. A retired naval aviator and combat veteran, Mark made two deployments to the Persian Gulf and flew 39 combat missions as part of Operation Desert Storm. He then became a NASA astronaut and served as either pilot or commander of 4 space shuttle missions. As such, he has the rare perspective of having been in a position to look down upon the whole Earth during a total of 854 orbits over 54 days in space during the decade between 2001 and 2011.
Mark is an American patriot by any reckoning, and he has had an extraordinary opportunity to observe and contemplate our unique planet. I should think folks of any political persuasion would be interested in reading his reflections on 2017.
As we all reflect on the past year, I encourage you to read his article.
“Don’t worry about the planet, the Earth will be just fine. What you need to worry about is us — all of us. …we must lead the way in solving this problem. If we don’t do this, who will?”
-Captain Mark Kelly, retired naval aviator, combat veteran, and astronaut, 2017