Climate Action Day 64 – Understand the Prospects of Carbon Removal

Nature-Based and Natural Solutions

The Frog will explore The Climate Action Handbook: A Visual Guide to 100 Climate Solutions by Heidi Roop in the first 100 days of 2024

Humans have been pumping carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere since the early 1800s. Fossil carbon dioxide is the main driver of global warming because it is a potent greenhouse gas and is very long-lived in the atmosphere once produced. We have an exhaustive record since we started of how carbon dioxide was produced (sources) and where it went (sinks).

When we started burning fossil fuels with purpose in the mid 1800s, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 286 ppm. On February 26, 2024 it was 426 ppm. Given that 1 ppm represents about 7.8 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, humans burnt enough fossil fuels that even with the ocean and land absorbing a considerable amount, 1092 gigatonnes has ended up in the atmosphere. This massive amount of carbon dioxide pollution disrupts the heat cycle in the atmosphere, trapping it. What we call the greenhouse effect.

It is important to note that the Earth does not care that we are screwing with its natural thermostat. What we must do is not about saving the Earth, rather it is about saving the humans that live on the Earth.

If we do nothing or too little, the temperature will rise to the point where the humans will be killed off or reduced to irrelevant numbers. At that point, new fossil carbon emissions will cease by definition. The Earth will then be free to start the many many million year process of removing all that anthropogenic carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. It is likely that the the concentration of carbon dioxide will slowly sink until it is below 300 ppm, where on geological timescales the Earth seems to like it.

We don’t have that much time. If we want humans to live on this planet, we have to get to net zero emissions by the end of the century.

The IPCC data shows that achieving the aggressive global targets of net zero greenhouse gas emissions that limit global temperature rise to 2°C or lower by 2100 will first require immediate and deep reductions in those emissions. This will require “rapid and profound decarbonization of the energy supply”.

But it is not enough. The IPCC acknowledges that we are now at a point where limiting the global temperature will also require a global reduction in fossil carbon dioxide already in the atmosphere. This process is referred to as carbon dioxide reduction or CDR, which refers to “deliberate technologies, practices, and approaches that remove carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere”.

Some of the processes covered under CDR include reforestation, afforestation (planting forests where there were none before) and land management, sequestration on land, biochar and bioenergy, and direct air carbon capture and storage technology.

It is this direct air capture (or DAC) technology that is tempting to nominate as the “silver bullet” to mitigate carbon capture. The technology has been investigated and deployed at small scale over decades and is technically sound. The US Department of Energy is pushing hard on technology development and deployment as part of the Carbon Negative Earth Shot. But as of 2021 only 19 DAC systems were in operation at some scale. The deployment of systems with enough capacity to make a difference is a daunting prospect.

While the US DOE is seriously pushing and funding carbon removal technology, fossil fuel companies are using “carbon capture” as a big part of their defensive rebranding and offensive greenwashing campaigns. They want to “use carbon capture to enable fossil fuel facilities to keep operating – and polluting – while claiming to be part of the climate solution”, as quoted here.

As ever, ExxonMobil is the master in carbon capture disinformation.

For your part, you might be tempted, pushed, or encouraged to consider purchasing carbon offsets as part of balancing your person climate spreadsheet. Or maybe a company you are investigating touts the carbon offsets they are using as part of their overall emissions management strategy. Many of these carbon offset programs have CDR as a main strategy, claiming to plant trees or other approaches.

Research before you commit and then verify that the projects your offsets claim to be based on actually exist. Decarbonization, carbon capture, carbon dioxide reduction, carbon offsets… the landscape is evolving, complex and subject to disinformation and abuse. This is a critical area in which to become deeply educated and savvy in decision making.

The IPCC is the data driven source for the details on the urgent actions we have to take right now to be net zero in carbon emissions in time to give our grandchildren a chance at a livable planet. To the IPCC, “the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to counterbalance hard-to-abate residual emissions is unavoidable if net zero CO₂ or GHG emissions are to be achieved”. So we should take it seriously.

Analysis: What the new IPCC report says about how to limit warming

I have a desire to believe the greenwashing and disinformation from the fossil fuel industry about whatever they think “carbon capture” is. Of all industries, they have the proven capability to create the massive industrial infrastructure needed for direct air capture of carbon dioxide that is deployable at a scale for meaningful impact. We need them to commit to helping to address the calamity that they are largely responsible for unleashing.

Alas I am not that naïve.

“Victory will be achieved when average citizens ‘understand’
(recognize) uncertainties in climate science”

Internal memo by the American Petroleum Institute, 1998

Next Up: Climate Action in 2024 – Day 65: Learn About Bioenergy and Carbon Capture and Storage

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