I was first introduced to “Harper’s Index” while serving in the Peace Corps as a high school science and math teacher at a boarding school in the northern part of Ghana. Each Index, published in Harper’s Magazine and re-published in other magazines like Newsweek International (where I read it thanks to my taxpayer-funded Peace Corps subscription – thanks!), is a collection of numerical statistics arranged in a way intended to provoke deep reflection about an important topic.
Something about the thoughtful arrangement of pure, indisputable numbers is compelling to my geek-brain, and in my block house on the savanna there was lots of time for pondering the meaning of those numbers. I was also in a mood to ponder aspects of the human condition, as my world view was being dramatically expanded and changed through exposure to a different culture, a different continent, alternate belief systems, and the daily struggles, triumphs, and cares of the enormous proportion of humanity who live with the same sorts of dreams but with a fraction of the material resources we take for granted in industrial nations.
In the tradition of “Harper’s Index,” my “Numbers for Pondering” are lists of numerical values related to climate change, its measurement, its effects, and its human impacts. Each cluster is meant to be thought-provoking. With respect to the numbers themselves, I have done my very best to make sure they are indisputable, being derived from either peer reviewed scientific publications or original reporting by mainstream news organizations. The numbers are hyperlinked to their sources.
As you ponder the numbers, I encourage you to keep squarely in mind the folks I met on the savanna, and their counterparts that make up half the world’s population living on less than $2.50 a day. As you consider whether we have a moral obligation to own up to climate change, and exercise the considerable power we have to mitigate it, keep in mind that those of us in industrial nations have the carbon footprints of giants. The poorer folks have the carbon footprints of babies, but they will suffer first from climate change and many are already beginning to (as some of the numbers below will lay bare). Of course, keep in mind the children in industrial nations, too. If we continue with “business as usual,” they and their children will experience the same sorts of consequences – just a bit later.
Or, we might decide to fix it.
Quick links to page contents
CO2, global temperature, and readily observable effects
Paris agreement and jobs
That other wall we don’t talk about (and morality)
250 years worth of clean, beautiful coal
CO2, global temperature, and readily observable effects
Prior to the year 1850, average parts per million of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere over the past 800,000 years: 231
Prior to 1850, maximum parts per million of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere since the appearance on Earth of modern humans: 287
Parts per million of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere in 1850: 287
Parts per million of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere in 2016: 400.7
Global average increase in Earth’s surface temperature, in degrees Celsius, between 1850 and 2016: 1.2
In NASA’s temperature record since 1880, number of the warmest years on record that have occurred in the 19 years between 1998 and 2016: 17
Percentage reduction in September Arctic sea ice observed from 1979 to 2016, according to NASA: 34.4
According to NASA, current combined loss rate of land ice from Greenland and Antarctica, in metric tons per year, contributing directly to sea-level rise: 412,000,000,000
Global sea-level rise, in inches, between 1880 and 2014: 9
Temperature increase of Earth’s oceans since 1969, in degrees Celsius, according to NASA: 0.17
Percentage increase in acidity of the oceans since the Industrial Revolution, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: 30
Fraction of the Great Barrier Reef that suffered extreme damage from bleaching in 2016-2017, according to aerial surveys: 2/3
Paris agreement and jobs
Percentage contribution of U.S. to cumulative global CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2011: 27
U.S. rank among nations in cumulative global CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2011: 1
Number of nations that have signed the Paris climate agreement and maintain their intention to honor their voluntary commitments to it: 194
Number of nations, including the U.S., that have announced their intention not to participate in the Paris climate agreement: 3
Number of references to “climate change” in President Trump’s June 1, 2017 speech announcing his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement, an internationally negotiated agreement to work collectively to prevent the potentially catastrophic consequences of “climate change”: 0
Number of references to “innovation” or “technology” in President Trump’s June 1, 2017 speech announcing his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement: 0
Number of references to “solar” or “wind” in President Trump’s June 1, 2017 speech announcing his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement: 0
Number of references to “coal” in President Trump’s June 1, 2017 speech announcing his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement: 8
Number of references to “job,” “jobs,” or “joblessness” in President Trump’s June 1, 2017 speech announcing his decision to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement: 18
Number of Americans employed by the coal industry in 2016, according to the DOE: 160,119
Number of Americans employed by the solar industry in 2016, according to the DOE: 373,807
Percentage of U.S. electricity generated by coal in 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA): 30.4
Percentage of U.S. electricity generated by solar in 2016, according to the U.S. EIA: 0.9
Number of Americans employed by the coal industry in 2016 per percentage unit of coal’s contribution to U.S. electricity generation: 5,267
Number of Americans employed by the solar industry in 2016 per percentage unit of solar’s contribution to U.S. electricity generation: 415,341
Metric tons of CO2 emitted in 2016 by electricity generation from U.S. coal, according to the U.S. EIA: 1,241
Amount of CO2 emitted by U.S. solar electricity generation: 0
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According to President Trump in a February, 2017 speech, estimate of potential jobs to be created by approval of the Keystone XL pipeline project, approved in March by the Trump Administration: 42,000
According to an official U.S. State Department report, number of permanent jobs expected to be created by the Keystone XL pipeline project: 35
According to a study by the DOE, percentage increase in CO2 emissions from Canadian oil sands oil, to be transported by the Keystone XL pipeline, relative to traditional U.S. crude: 18
That other wall we don’t talk about (and morality)
Using words including “mythical,” “hoax,” and “bullshit,” number of times Donald Trump tweeted climate change skepticism or denial between 2011 and 2015: 115
In a permit application filed by Trump International Golf Links Ireland, number of tons of rock proposed to make up a sea wall to protect Trump Doonbeg, a low-lying, sea-side luxury golf course and resort purchased by Trump in 2014, from “global warming and its effects” (wording from the permit application): 200,000
Proposed height, in feet, of Trump’s proposed sea wall, which Trump International Golf Links Ireland wrote is necessary in the permit application, directly citing climate change, because “it could reasonably be expected that the rate of sea level rise might become twice of that presently occurring”: 13
Number of offshore wind turbines proposed to be built 4 km from the same golf course by Clare Coastal Wind Power Ltd, which Trump International Golf Links Ireland formally opposed on the grounds that “the resort primarily relies on bookings from international and, in particular, the North American market and a reduction in bookings as a consequence of the visual impact from the proposed development will have a serious negative impact on tourism in the area”: 9
Number of golf courses within 400 miles of Shishmaref, Alaska, a town that voted last year to relocate (if it can find money to do so) because it’s being destroyed by the direct effects of climate change: 0
Approximate number of Americans who, for the time being, call Shishmaref home: 650
Including Shishmaref, Number of Alaskan towns and cities at imminent risk of destruction by the effects of climate change: 31
Dollar amount of a federal “climate resilience” grant, announced by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in January, 2016, to fund the relocation of approximately 60 residents of Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana, which is similarly being destroyed by the effects of climate change, according to the National Climate Assessment, a report co-authored by 13 federal agencies: 48,000,000
Approximate number of residents of Kiribati, a nation of 33 Pacific islands that recently paid nearly $7 million for a 6,000-acre refuge in Fiji because climate models predict much of Kiribati will be underwater by 2100: 110,000
According to the International Organization for Migration, minimum number of people who passed through Agadez, Niger in 2016 while fleeing West Africa on the so-called “Road on Fire,” due to prolonged, climate change induced failure of their subsistence farms: 311,000
Since 1983, number of people the government of China has relocated from the arid Ningxia region into new, hastily built villages, due in large part to rising temperatures and diminishing rainfall in Ningxia linked to climate change, the most recent wave of whom China formally names “ecological migrants”: 1,140,000
Approximate rate of increase, in square miles per year, of China’s deserts due to human activities including climate change: 1,300
According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, average number of people “forcibly displaced by weather-related sudden onset hazards – such as floods, storms, wildfires, extreme temperature” each year since 2008: 21,500,000
250 years worth of clean, beautiful coal
“We have nearly 100 years worth of natural gas and more than 250 years worth of clean, beautiful coal. We are a top producer of petroleum and the number one producer of natural gas. We have so much more than we ever thought possible. We are really in the driving seat…”
-President Trump, calling for loosening of environmental regulations in pursuit of a “golden era of American energy” in a June 29, 2017 speech promoting the White House’s “Energy Week”
“And the last administration had an idea of keeping it in the ground.”
-EPA Administrator, Scott Pruitt, in a March 28, 2017 interview with ABC News Anchor, George Stephanopoulos
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Let’s ponder some numbers on those two statements. (Click hyperlinked numbers for more information…)
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According to the 2012 Global Energy Assessment, carbon content of estimated global recoverable fossil energy resources that remain, in gigatons of carbon: 15,000
According to the same assessment, range of estimated carbon content of remaining global reserves of “beautiful” coal (of which beauty is, I guess, in the eye of the beholder), in gigatons of carbon: 7,300 to 11,000
According to NASA scientists, based on climate modeling shown in a peer reviewed scientific analysis to produce excellent agreement with past known global conditions spanning hundreds of thousands of years of Earth’s history, expected global average temperature increase if we were to burn fossil fuels containing 10,000 gigatons of carbon on a “business as usual” trajectory from the present, in degrees Fahrenheit: 29
Over the Earth’s surface, current most common summer wet bulb temperature, degrees Fahrenheit: 80
In degrees Fahrenheit, sustained wet bulb temperature above which the human body cannot get rid of sufficient excess metabolic heat to maintain a normal core body temperature near 98.6 degrees Fahrenheit: 95
Assuming humanity burns additional fossil fuels containing 10,000 gigatons of carbon, estimated most common summer wet bulb temperature over the Earth’s surface, degrees Fahrenheit: 109
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“The Earth was 10-12°C [18-22°F] warmer than today … at the peak of the PETM [Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, about 56 million years ago in Earth’s history]. How did mammals survive that warmth? Some mammals have higher internal temperatures than humans and there is evidence of evolution of surface-area-to-mass ratio to aid heat dissipation, for example transient dwarfing of mammals and even soil fauna during the PETM warming. However, human-made warming will occur in a few centuries, as opposed to several millennia in the PETM, thus providing little opportunity for evolutionary dwarfism to alleviate impacts of global warming. We conclude that the large climate change from burning all fossil fuels would threaten the biological health and survival of humanity, making policies that rely substantially on adaptation inadequate.
… Most of the remaining fossil fuel carbon is in coal and unconventional oil and gas. Thus, it seems, humanity stands at a fork in the road. As conventional oil and gas are depleted, will we move to carbon-free energy and efficiency—or to unconventional fossil fuels and coal? If fossil fuels were made to pay their costs to society, costs of pollution and climate change, carbon-free alternatives might supplant fossil fuels over a period of decades. However, if governments force the public to bear the external costs and even subsidize fossil fuels, carbon emissions are likely to continue to grow, with deleterious consequences for young people and future generations.
It seems implausible that humanity will not alter its energy course as consequences of burning all fossil fuels become clearer. Yet strong evidence about the dangers of human-made climate change have so far had little effect. Whether governments continue to be so foolhardy as to allow or encourage development of all fossil fuels may determine the fate of humanity.”
-James Hansen, Makiko Sato, Gary Russell, and Pushker Kharecha, current and former scientists at NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in a peer reviewed scientific journal article published in 2011.
#TheNumbersDontLie